Ishiba Leads Race to Succeed PM Kishida, Kyodo Poll Reveals

• Shigeru Ishiba is the favored candidate to succeed PM Fumio Kishida, according to a Kyodo News poll.
• Despite his popularity, Ishiba struggles to broaden his support within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
• Public trust in the LDP remains low, with 78% of respondents saying Kishida’s resignation did not restore their trust.
• The upcoming presidential election will be a crucial test for the LDP’s ability to regain public trust and maintain its dominance in Japanese politics.

In a recent poll conducted by Kyodo News, former Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba has emerged as the most favored candidate to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The poll results, released on Monday, come ahead of the ruling party’s presidential election scheduled for next month. The nationwide telephone survey, conducted over three days from Saturday, revealed that Ishiba stood at 25.3 percent, followed by former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi at 19.6 percent and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi at 10.1 percent.

However, among Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) supporters, Koizumi led with 24.2 percent, with Ishiba trailing at 21.0 percent. This indicates that Ishiba, despite his popularity among the general public, is struggling to broaden his support base within the party. The poll was conducted days after Kishida made an abrupt announcement last week that he will not run in the presidential election. This decision was made to take responsibility for a slush funds scandal that was revealed late last year, significantly shaking the LDP.

Public Trust in LDP Remains Low

Despite Kishida’s decision to step down, 78 percent of respondents said that this move did not help restore their trust in the LDP. Ishiba, 67, has expressed his intention to run for the party leadership, marking his fifth attempt to lead the party. His popularity within the party is apparently low due to his decision to leave the party in 1993 after voting in favor of a no-confidence motion against the then LDP-led government. He returned to the party in 1997.

Koizumi, 43, is the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who led Japan from 2001 to 2006 with relatively high approval ratings. Takaichi, a 63-year-old female politician, is known for her hawkish views on security issues. The LDP has come under scrutiny after some of its factions, such as the largest one formerly led by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, neglected to report portions of their incomes from fundraising parties and maintained slush funds for years.

Upcoming Presidential Election: A Crucial Test for LDP

When asked about when they would prefer the House of Representatives to be dissolved, 34.2 percent of respondents said within the year, while 30.3 percent favored it taking place immediately after the end of the LDP presidential race. The approval rating for Kishida’s Cabinet, meanwhile, edged up by 1.5 percentage points to 26.1 percent. The disapproval rating stood at 67.4 percent. By political party, the support rate for the LDP stood at 36.7 percent, while that for the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan was at 12.3 percent. The second-biggest opposition Japan Innovation Party measured 8.5 percent.

The survey called 543 randomly selected households with eligible voters and 3,148 mobile phone numbers. It yielded responses from 429 household members and 635 mobile phone users. Some parts of Ishikawa Prefecture affected by the Noto Peninsula earthquake on New Year’s Day were excluded from the survey.

In conclusion, the upcoming presidential election will be a crucial test for the LDP, as it will determine whether the party can regain public trust and maintain its dominance in Japanese politics. The candidates’ strategies and policy proposals will be closely watched by the public and could significantly influence the election outcome. The LDP’s handling of the slush funds scandal and its aftermath will also be a key factor in shaping public opinion and the election results.