Potential candidates in LDP presidential election come into view

Digital minister Taro Kono and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba appear ready to run in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September — a troubling sign for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Since the latest parliamentary session ended Sunday, internal maneuvering within the LDP ahead of September’s poll has begun in earnest, with a growing number of lawmakers openly voicing their dissatisfaction with Kishida.

Kono and Ishiba — both widely considered two of the country’s most popular politicians but lacking a base within the LDP — seem to have already made up their minds.

Kono, a veteran member of the faction led by LDP Vice President Taro Aso who has run twice in the past, reportedly expressed his intention to enter the race to his faction boss over dinner Wednesday.

On Friday, when a reporter asked him whether he intends to run, Kono did not provide a clear answer.

“It’s exactly as I’ve been saying for the past 28 years,” he said, referring to the time he has been in parliament, adding that he’s currently focused on fulfilling his duties as a member of the Cabinet.

Kono previously ran for the LDP leadership in 2009 — weeks after the party had lost power in a disastrous Lower House election — and in 2021, when he was beaten by Kishida in a runoff vote despite a strong showing in the first round.

With his handling of problems involving the My Number identification system last summer having received widespread criticism, Kono has largely stayed out of the media spotlight for several months.

As a member of the Cabinet, he has refrained from making bold or controversial remarks in the last few years, a departure from a habit that gained him a reputation as a maverick and a certain amount of popularity with the public.

It is essential for Kono to receive the backing of the Aso faction — the only party group still regularly meeting after a flurry of faction dissolutions in the wake of the LDP’s political funds scandal — as without it his candidacy would be a nonstarter.

Also crucial to his chances will be the decisions of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, a long-standing critic of the Kishida administration who is close to Kono. Whether he will move to support Kono’s candidacy is unclear.

In any case, as a member of the Kishida administration, Kono likely won’t throw his hat in the ring until nearer the start of the race.

Meanwhile, Ishiba — one of the public’s top choices to be Kishida’s successor — has shown his eagerness to step into the race.

The Asahi Shimbun reported Friday that the former LDP secretary-general had revealed to confidants that he will run in the September race with the aim of reviving a party tarnished by the recent political funds scandal.

Ishiba has long hinted at the possibility he will run in the presidential election for a fourth time, after unsuccessful bids in 2012, 2018 and 2020.

While expressing veiled criticisms of the Kishida administration at times, Ishiba has avoided taking an overtly confrontational stance toward the government.

Rumors have also swirled that Ishiba himself might be tapped for a post in a potential reshuffle of the LDP executive lineup — what would be seen as a last-ditch effort by Kishida to shore up his declining support.

“It would be great if various people with different ideas put themselves forward for the presidential election and people took interest in the vote,” Ishiba told reporters Thursday at the LDP headquarters.

Kishida and Ishiba dined together with other LDP lawmakers Thursday evening, before the prime minister headed to another dinner with LDP General Affairs Chairman Hiroshi Moriyama.

Since last week, Kishida has been dining with LDP lawmakers in what is seen as an effort to gauge the atmosphere in the party and build support around his administration.

In a news conference last week, he dodged questions on a potential reelection bid, only saying he still feels his job is halfway complete.

Only once in the history of the LDP has a challenger defeated a sitting president running for the post — in 1978, when then-Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda lost to Masayoshi Ohira.

Other potential candidates for the position include economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi.