Tokyo by-elections setback a blow to the LDP, but maybe not to Kishida

The Liberal Democratic Party’s poor showing in Sunday’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly by-elections sent a strong signal of mounting dissatisfaction toward the scandal-tainted ruling party. Still, it won’t likely have any decisive impact on the standing of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Sunday’s results follow a string of electoral defeats at both the national and local levels in the last few months that hint at growing disaffection with the LDP.

The party entered the election with five incumbents, but only two of its eight candidates managed to obtain a seat in the nine districts up for grabs.

While the ballots in the districts of Adachi and Shinagawa turned out to be real cliffhangers, a fiasco in the city of Hachioji might have more long-term repercussions for the party.

In the city in western Tokyo, LDP candidate Takahiro Baba suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Yasuhiko Takita, the head of a minor party who secured almost 60% of the votes.

The city had long been a stronghold of former LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda, a prominent member of a party faction once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. During the campaign, LDP heavyweights such as Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi and former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba traveled to the city in support of Baba.

In January, after Tokyo prosecutors concluded an investigation into the LDP’s slush funds scandal, Hagiuda admitted having underreported funds amounting to over ¥27 million ($167,820) between 2018 and 2022. However, when the party handed down punishments to lawmakers over wrongdoing in relation to the scandal, he got away with a lighter reprimand then most and was able to retain his position as head of the party’s Tokyo chapter, despite protests.

In the long run, Sunday’s poor performance might have more of an impact on Hagiuda’s potential comeback rather than Kishida’s prospects for reelection as party president in September.

“Hagiuda was seen as the leader meant to revive the fortunes of the Abe faction,” political journalist Hiroshi Izumi said. “Now that his standing has taken a hit, other factions within the party are cheering because they have everything to gain,” he said.