U.S.-Japan Relations: Navigating Trump’s Domestic Focus

• In Trump’s second term, Japan’s role in Asia is expected to expand, despite not being a top priority for the U.S. President.
• Trump’s focus will likely be on domestic issues and diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and the Middle East, while urging allies like Japan to increase defense spending.
• The U.S. faces a shifting geopolitical landscape with the rise of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and is rethinking strategies with its allies.
• Balancing interests and values while dealing with authoritarian countries, managing relations with allies, and countering China’s growing influence will be key challenges for U.S. foreign policy.

As the world anticipates the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump, the role of Japan in Asia is expected to expand, despite not being a top priority for Trump. This perspective is shared by Glen S Fukushima, a renowned expert on U.S.-Japan relations. He noted that issues related to Japan were hardly a focal point during Trump’s presidential campaign. Instead, Trump’s initial focus is expected to be on domestic issues such as border security and tax cuts for individuals and businesses.

On the diplomatic front, Trump is expected to focus on bringing peace to Ukraine and the Middle East, gaining an upper hand in the U.S. competition with China, and reaching out to North Korea. However, Fukushima does not anticipate immediate demands from the Trump administration towards Japan. Instead, he expects Trump to continue urging Tokyo and other U.S. allies to boost their defense spending and rectify bilateral trade imbalances.

The geopolitical dynamics of U.S.-China relations are also expected to impact Japan. While Japan does not desire a U.S.-China conflict, it also does not want the two superpowers to become overly friendly, creating a so-called Group of Two. This could marginalize Japan and make it less important to both the U.S. and China.

U.S. Facing Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

In the broader context, the U.S. is facing a shifting geopolitical landscape. The rise of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea poses a significant national security threat to the U.S. and its NATO allies. The focal point of this threat is Ukraine, where Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of conquest is seen as a prelude to more provocations and potential war against NATO’s eastern states.

In response to these challenges, the U.S. and its allies are rethinking their strategies. For instance, the EU is considering pragmatic solutions to reduce economic ties with Beijing and align regulations with the U.S. through the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC). This would encourage more European firms to adopt U.S. technologies, boosting the EU’s stagnating productivity.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is also grappling with its relations with authoritarian countries. According to the 2023 Freedom House report, 57 countries are designated as not free, primarily in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union. The U.S. has to balance its values-based foreign policy with its interests-based approach when dealing with these countries.

China’s Growing Influence in Africa and Latin America

In Africa, China’s influence is growing, with Chinese companies entering almost all African markets. Today, there are more than 1,000 Chinese companies operating in Africa, and some one million people of Chinese descent reside on the continent. This has led to an increase in Chinese exports to Africa, particularly in North Africa.

In Latin America, the U.S. is advocating for a positive agenda that includes migration, health, and education. The Biden administration has begun a radical overhaul on migration, emphasizing the importance of a humane policy for migrants, asylum seekers, and refugees. The Covid-19 pandemic has underscored the inequities in hemispheric capacities to respond to health crises, highlighting the need for cooperation in this area.