Why Iran’s hardline regime won’t change

CHICAGO – As the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in the opening wave of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February, drew to a close, thunderous sounds of bombardment rose from Iran’s south. But through the funeral rites and renewed airstrikes alike, one state institution never broke its stride: the gallows. Protesters recently seized in the streets and political prisoners held for years are being executed at a rapid rate.

The United States and Israel’s strategy in Iran seems to have assumed that a war of attrition, together with U.S. President Donald Trump’s dramatic threats, would change how the Islamic Republic treats its people or the world or drive a critical mass of Iranians into the streets to topple the regime. The months since February have revealed the flaws in this assessment.

The Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, built the entire system on a simple, brutal and unassailable doctrine: Any action against the regime or state apparatus must be met with the harshest possible punishment — no leniency allowed. Officials are permitted to do whatever it takes to preserve the system, even if it means trampling the regime’s foundational religious principles.